Mobile Web: Thoughts on Mass Adoption
by Tarek Abu-Esber
A couple of weeks ago Nielsen Mobile released a report announcing that the Mobile Web had reached Critical-Mass. According to their research a combination of device availability, network speeds, content availability and consumer interest mean that the Mobile Web is set to grow rapidly in the near future.
While I might not go as far as using the term “critical-mass” I definitely agree with the overall idea of their report. The traditional barriers to the Mobile Web are all being broken and this is helping drive Mobile Web usage: Walled Gardens, Data Charges, Connection Speeds, Device & Browser Technology, compelling content.
All this got me wondering, how long till the Mobile Web hits mass-adoption? More specifically, what would be defined as “mass-adoption”? The majority of mobile phone users are Mobile Web users?
A high percentage, say over 80%? Or similar to the proportion of PC to web users? As Western telcos and other mobile players make waves in the Mobile Web area this will drive adoption up exponentially. We might expect this proportion to be higher in emerging market as the mobile will be the main internet connection for a large portion of the population.
Mobile Web usage reaches similar levels to Regular Web usage?
Or perhaps even surpasses, especially when the emerging markets start to embrace Mobile Web. This should be a smaller number of users than in the category above as Mobiles outnumber PCs roughly3-1. Should we be comparing the Mobile Web to the regular Web this closely? Does the way the Web played out give any insight into how the Mobile Web will?
We hit a ceiling in the number of data connections that the operators can support on current hardware?
Potentially a real limitation. As networks are offering unlimited data packages and more and more people takes these up (Vodafone are giving 500MB/month free to every customer) their networks are going to start feeling the strain especially as users start to use the mobile data connection as they do regular web. 4G technologies like LTE et al would over come this but will they come online soon enough? Mobile Web adoption is growing at a fast rate and probably ahead of the road-map for most Western 4G solutions.
What else could be possible indicators of “mass-market” uptake of the Mobile Web? Do any of the above thoughts ring true? Please leave a comment with your thoughts and ideas.
