GSM Mobile Web Congress - GSM MWC 2008

I’m going to be at the MWC 2008 in Barcelona next week, and I plan to cover it posting along the way balancing my networking meetings, seminar attendance, dinners, and the usual crush of events that circulate around this global Uber conference.

Boasting a new brand, Mobile World Congress (over the last 12 years I’ve been attending it has been labled the “GSM World Congress,” “3GSM” and now “MWC” and it has roots in the very old “GSMA Plenaries“) rumours are that attendees are down this year and that operators have thinned their attendee ranks–perhaps it might be the US$5400 Gold Pass or alternatively US$500 exhibits only pass? (Reflecting the relative purchasing power of the dollar for us ‘mericans!) The event is run as a profit center by the GSM Associaiton…what could be next, “Galactic Mobile Congress” where we can pay in dilithium crystals?

MWC Hot Topics
Going into Barcelona’s MWC 2008, I think the following will be the strong under currents of the show:

1) Mobile Advertising: Three commercial models have become prevalent in the Mobile world: transactions, subscription and advertising. With advertisers looking to get personalized as possible with their messages, it is only a matter of time before the metrics are resolved. In 3 short years the expectation is that this will be a $12 billion market
2)Africa is the next gold rush to some extant South America. The emerging market overall is getting more and more buzz heat, with Africa presenting greenfield opportunities to leap frog the developed world with new mobile networks. This will catalyze the service value chain whether it is basic SMS, mobile transactions such as remittance transfers, even advertising subsidizing low ARPU consumers to enable either messaging or voice services.
3)Mobile Transactions: This will be the year of the Mobile Payments breakout along the entire techno-value system.
4)Democratization of Applications, meaning Mobile User Generated Content
5)Mobile Social Networking Services Percieved as the next big thing and the prime disruptor of the carrier’s influence in the value chain by venture capitalists.
6)Mobile TV. It is getting traction in the US, but still has numerous challenges across all the regions of the globe. Scale is developing from interested participants, infrastructure providers, and users which is driving the interest.
7) LTE-Long Term Evolution. Ironic that even though no operator in the N. America has a 3G network, the constant drive for the next big thing is already driving LTE.
Security in Mobile, whether device or data centric. With increasing IP connectivity, the threat of being hacked is increasing as is attacks or exportation of unsecured data (”extrusion security”).
9) Cost savings & Efficiencies. Notwithstanding the growth of the industry, with recessionary storm clouds brewing over the horizon due to the fact that the UK and US overwrought housing markets, the Chinese stock market bubble and currency issues, there’s a chill coming, which translates not into new innovations but new ways of savings for operators and the entire value chain.

Mobile World Congress Cold Spots:
1) Mobile Gaming. Real gaming is still on line, and interactive mobile gaming hasn’t yet hit the big time.
2) Mobile Search: Search leads to the ends of advertising, the means aren’t really that important. Last two year’s focus on search will be shifting to this year’s focus on advertising. Even the search driven companies are now transmorgrifying into “advertising companies.”
3) Operator Interoperability–06 lead the way to some consolidation with Sybase’s acquisition of Mobile 365, Airwide plucked up FirstHop in 07, but now there’s more interest in what you do with a network as opposed to how you do it. Plus the growth of SMS continues, but little migration to may be what’s next. Could this be the point where in operator’s eyes SMS becomes a “Cash Cow”?
4) MVNOs: Name one that is successful, meaning profitable. Well, alright TESCO in the UK. But who else and where else?
5) Mobile satelite. Enough said

WHAT DO YOU WANT TO SEE & HEAR ABOUT AT MWC? REPORTER ODER: Reply as a response to this posting or send me and email through contact and I’ll try to look into issues and companies you are interested in and write about my impressions.