Apple Rides the Dragon: NOT!
by Paul Ruppert
As is usually the case with prognostications, it is more than likely that you’ll get something wrong. But rare is the case that within a few days, your glaring lack of vision or apparent knowledge and judgement becomes so apparent as it has with my predictions for 2008.
Item 5 from my 2008 predictons January 8 post was “Apple will launch the iPhone with China Mobile in China by June 2008 in anticipation of the Beijing Olympics. By the EO 2008, they will sell over 500,000 units in China alone.”
Well early last week reports leaked out that China Mobile had walked away from talks with Apple over a revenue scheme Apple was demanding of CMCC–as they did with ATT–for a piece of the airtime revenue from calls.
Thus submarining Item 5 from my 08 predictions.
But, Apple’s stumbling with China Mobile provides BlackBerry maker Research in Motion (RIM) the opening to crack the Chinese market at the expense of the iPhone! Reports in Chinese newspapers suggest that the BlackBerry will go on sale in the region before the end of February. This follows years of effort by RIM to launch into the only Asian market it has yet to crack. RIM hinted at a deal with the Chinese firm as far back in July 2007.
However, the BlackBerry debut does not guarantee success for RIM, as China Unicom’s rival RedBerry handset sells for less in China. Perhaps I should have inserted Blackberry for iPhone.
If you’re interested in more on the China Mobile Apple iPhone drama, my friend Christine Li at the China Business Network has an excellent podcast (click here) with China FMCG market expert, Shaun Rein, illuminating the perils of working with Chinese companies, in particular Apple’s efforts with China mobile over the iPhone.
Ah well, can’t get them all right. I’ll keep track on the rest and will hope for the best.
