I’ve plied my trade as a mobile executive by positioning an unknown value proposition, evangelizing it, mitigating customers’ risk, igniting revenues and swiftly harvesting market conditions. I’m not a long term prognosticator and having the privilege of a conversation with you I’m not claiming the title of futurist. Hence, from my practical perspective I think there are paths in plain view worth following for the future of mobile messaging. In short I think we are likely to see evolutionary not revolutionary change for mobile messaging.

The power of a short, asynchronous “snack” length communication has made text the dominant format. I really don’t think the service layer experience will change much. It will in fact increase and endure. Email to mobile and mobile IM are not “messaging” from my purist point view. I do think that messaging technology at the technical access layer will migrate outside of the network from where it resides today. And, I believe we are entering an upward slope of use from an emerging influencer which will lead to the next iteration in the messaging experience.

Flat clouds over the horizon
“Is texting terminal?” Not hardly. In reality we are at an adolescent stage for text based messaging. Only a dozen years from the first fully interoperable country market (the UK), the person to person (P2P) messaging segment continues to grow there at over 25% per year. SMS is a defacto “platform” and text messaging will increasingly drive “transactional” demand of its own use. What is “transactional” demand? It is when a standard or currency becomes so pervasive that it drives an inherent demand for itself given its universal use, application and acceptance. Think global currencies of record such as the US dollar and the Euro.

SMS text is the “currency of record.” That will not change. Ring tones, content, alerts, OTA, advertising, banking and P2P messaging all rely on SMS. The currency of record will only get stronger with globally scaled opportunities tapping traffic from the opening of the bottom of the pyramid consumer markets and ever more use by the developed market economies. Consider just how much more messaging will occur with the advent of full M transactions, machine to machine messaging, and other consumer services, as well as the emergence of “prosumer” messaging (enterprise services driven by consumer behavior) and you see a clear picture of SMS’ strength. Forecasts by TomiAhonen consulting predict SMS global revenues to break US$ 100 billion by 2008. 4 billion handsets by 2010 and average service margins exceeding 80%. According to Portia research, over 40% of the planet’s population can be reached via SMS. Very big numbers for texting which will not sunset soon. Unlikely that voice or other modality substituted messaging will depose text messaging or even alter it much.

Death of Hub & Spoke Architecture
Will the underlying technology of transiting change? Yes. After all this is technology and it is constantly in flux and under influence from a number of quarters. The shift will be from today’s in-network based short message service center (SMSc), to a shared, repeat shared, SIP based technology which resides between the networks and not within them. These shared access points will be more advanced than the shared carrier connectivity that is contemplated today. Current messaging architecture (in network) is a hub and spoke environment. The future of messaging lies in a flatter architecture with IP and Ethernet technologies, essentially an IP network cloud which resides between the mobile network operators. Why is it between operators? Because this flat, open architecture will be driven by the need/demand for access by adjacent segment offerings seeking to directly link to the messaging network.

This change in architecture will be driven by the pressure to open up access to application providers, content developers, handset manufacturers and adjacent web communities such as social networks–all as a result of the continuing growth of text messaging. The entire communications ecosystem will seek access, which will be the primary driver of change. In fact, this is already happening through the initial developments of the “mobile internet.”

This does not mean the operators will lose their influence. Only Nixon could open China, and so it is in the interest of the carriers to craft the middle mechanism. The scope and scale of messaging requires an honest broker—best created by the carriers—which will be formed to manage access. This is not a novel operating model. From engineering technologies (3GPP) to cellco networks (GSMA), to phone numbering (Neustar) to the internet (W3C) there are numerous actors that could play this role.

It will be in the operators’ core business interests to shift to the middle. With the increasing volume and commodity pressures of messaging, migrating management to the “white space” will improve their business processes and lower their costs. It will not be the carrier network which will impart value, but the federated points of presence that impart the value. Just as financial markets have multiple access points, a migration to the “white space” between carriers and open access messaging is an inevitability, Somewhere just over the rainbow Dorothy, the operators will start to bind themselves to this technical shift from service to access knowing there is a greater future because of it.

The 15ers
The biggest changes in messaging will emerge from social networking services as they migrate to the mobile world. Twitter is the forerunner of this change. They deftly adapted their service to the mobile access point and there will be more to follow. Consider who will be the main drivers of the change–the 15ers. What are 15ers? If you’re over 40, they are already in your home. They live in a constantly connected bedroom culture. Most engage in more complex technically connected communications than a corporate executive with his blackberry and Outlook in and out box. They are your adolescent children coming of age in 2015.

The 15ers do not go “on line” and “off line”, they just “are.” No difference. Distinctions, if any, are more about personas: home, school, web, gaming, search, or work. Their social facilitation is centered on technology from mobile to web. 15ers are the first fully digital natives. Their older European siblings grew basic SMS text, and the 15ers will alter the access points of messaging, going beyond peer to peer, to “4 more”.

Messaging demands of the 15ers will focus integration along 4 dimensions of their lives and drive their behavior as adult messaging customers: content (my stuff), space (here, where I am), people (family, colleagues, and friends) and time (now). To 15ers the mobile is the nuclear link point, and as social networking services expand, they will become the first point of contact, which in turn will shift the access point to a flat architecture for messaging. These messaging channels of the future will require messaging capabilities in all 4 dimensions/vectors. The mobile platform is ideally suited for social networking services, and messaging is ideally suited for the 4 dimensions driving social networking services. The 15ers increasing use of social networking binds, and the resulting expansive demand and consumption of such services will be the force that transforms the messaging experience. Mobile will be the life infrastructure for the 15ers.

Is this the Canary in the Coal Mine?
These are just my top line telltales. Beneath the surface there are indicators that text is becoming the primary purpose of the mobile phone. In 2006, the UK became the first European country where the majority of all phone owners already prefer to communicate via SMS than through voice calls. According to JD Power’s annual survey, voice call minutes declined by 26% while SMS text messaging grew by 44%. In 2007, Ireland’s telecoms regulator ComReg had the same findings. Graying Boomers are catching on to it. Who knows where this might end up…that’s what I think the future of mobile messaging is.

Ok now it’s your turn. What do you think I missed or am wrong about? What do you consider when you think about the future of mobile messaging? Upfront I said I’m not a prognosticator. I prefer conversations. Please share your perspectives, critiques, additions, subtractions, bravos, taunts and tomatoes via comments. Thanks for your interest.