Is Text Messaging Terminal ?
by Paul Ruppert
Is multimodal messaging the death of mobile text messaging? Will voice or other modality substituted messaging eventually depose text based mobile messaging? I’ve tripped over a pile of tangled impressions that got me thinking about this.
In talking to entrepreneurs, venture capitalists and some research pundits over the summer, I repeatedly ran into boosters of “multimodal messaging,†and “Unified Communications.†It was reminiscent of the old notion of “Universal Messaging†which I examined as a fledging product development director back in 1998–before the turn of the century (ouch). “Universal Messaging†then was an Internet-based service that gathered messages from all media (email, voice mail, faxes) in one place and converted them into digital files, accessible via the web and potentially via mobile. I’m sure you’re using it every day, right?
Today’s “Unified Communications†incorporates all channels and modalities of contacts, as framed by the ‘flexible’ integration of voice, video, instant messaging or visual text with unified asynchronous messaging (UM), not only converging messaging applications but also interface technology, meaning wired and wireless, voice and touch. Blending multiple acces channels supposedly providing new avenues of interactions to mobile users. An “uber-converging integrator†of visual, voice and touch interaction.
The Buzz
The most immediate commercial opportunity seems to be focused on the potential of “Voice SMS†or messaging via a voice interface. Instead of passing “notes†you would be passing “voice snacks.â€
The boost surrounding companies like Bubble Motion, , Kirusa, , IMIMobile, Bharti Telesoft, HeyAnita, RockeTalk, Springdoo, Evoca, Saynow, and Eyjot with their variants of “Voice SMS†offerings is clearly building. The premise they offer seems to be quite seductive to the Sand Hill Road set, with both Kirusa and Bubble Motion recently receiving significant funding rounds from India based Helion and Nexus for Kirusa and Bubble Motion scorring with Palo Alto based Sequoia. The focused religious pursuit of the “next big thing†out of the valley would make a casual observer believe that the obituary for text messaging modality has already been written by the availability of voice mode messaging which these companies offer, usually in the context that “SMS is not all that it can be.†SMS est mort, n’est pas?
The future of mobile messaging with over 3 trillion text messages annually would logically seem well secured. A well of demand currently from 2.1 billlion users globally is not going to dry up over night. Plus, all the trends are upwards. There is revenue and SMS usage growth in even the most mature country markets such as the UK. Message dense nations with high percentages of young populations, mostly in Asia, continue to come on line to mobile. Even in markets like the US, which lagged in embracing the ease and power of texting and seemingly preferred email and Instant Messaging, text messaging has become an intimate aspect of daily lives, especially for those 15 to 25.
So what’s the hype all about?
First, it isn’t SMS at all but voice IP packets. “Voice SMS†has nothing to do with SMS technology at all. It’s a marketing gimmick–associate with something understood to define a new offering. It is positioning a potentially substitutable solution to the familiar and true service. Second, much of the appeal seems to be from non-market factors such as regulatory interference, e.g., mandatory “hands free†usage while driving which is growing in industrialized countries. Obversely it is a “bottom of the pyramid†opportunity to reach out to potentially illiterate, but new mobile users, who “can’t text.†At this stage, India is paraded into the picture as the poster boy market to validate the service demand of voice being more powerful messaging medium.
What was that you were saying about illiterate Indians?
No one has more than a hand full of operator customers, but the implication presented is that texting is too difficult for semi-literate and illiterate users, especially in India where the service has gotten a toe hold. I find this a great irony since India’s literacy rates are rapidly rising due to its growing economy, so much so that its newspaper readership and the launching of new mastheads are skyrocketing. While most mobile professionals think the print medium is dying in favor of mobile access, in the world’s fastest growing mobile market, the newspaper business is booming. Third, is the appeal of multi-modality messaging. Here the siren song of the next big things converges with the operating mode of fledgling companies and venture backers keen to get in on the ground floor of a “big†opportunity.
These same advocates also look at “voice SMS†as a major service force displacing SMS usage, with some claiming the means to capture 20% of the SMS market within three years, globally. Citing the growth of mobile Push to Talk efforts as major shift in the mobile service environment, as well as the the over the horizon potential of mobile IM as pulling effects. So I’ve set the stage of the appeal of multi-modality messaging.
Later this week in Part 2 of “Is Text Messaging Terminal?†I’ll examine the markets, standards, usage factors, and comparable services defining my conclusion on whether text really is terminal.
STILL MORE AT Is Text Messaging Terminal Part 2 Click here
